Particularly when you are interested in channel level attribution. Practical application of the Markov Model can be powerful. Markov Chains are named after the mathematician Andrey Markov, and in essence, enable modelling a sequence of events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. This is based on Game Theory, and approaches marketing as a game, where each channel is a player in the game, and the set of all players/channels can be seen as though working together in order to drive the conversions.Ī very broad brush explanation of a typical Shapley approach is to find an average incremental value for a particular channel touchpoint by looking at all conversion paths that exist.Īnother common model is a Markov Chain model. Recent advances in Machine Learning and cheap deployment in SAAS architectures have allowed probabilistic data processing to be applied to data challenges in marketing day-to-day.įor example, Google Analytics uses Shapley Modelling for their data-driven channel models. That should only ever be run in parallel to attribution activity that is intended to allow tactical optimisation day-to-day Possible limitations – Due to the complexity and volume of data required to create balanced tests and models that are statistically sound, media mix and econometrics studies done correctly are an expensive, ongoing proposition. And potentially used infrequently to inform overall strategy Works well – Can be used where be used to answer a particular question for a particular time period. Which can be used to determine incrementality or uplift associated with various media types. This modelling approach is then used to analyse different mixes of media channels, cohorts of customers and overall acquisition outcomes (using a mix of variations including use of catalogue only, catalogue plus some marketing channel, the same channels with no catalogue etc).īy comparing the results of these variations, an overall value can be determined for the incremental acquisitions made thanks to the catalogue itself – which can then be enriched with data about cost of delivery, operational cost, marketing costs etc. So let’s begin our whistle-stop tour of each attribution model in turn: And, in practice, identifying which model is right for your brand or your business is going to be impacted by a range of different factors from the stage, scale and maturity of your marketing activity to how much time, budget and effort you are able to apply to it. One of the key things to understand about attribution models is that there isn’t a definitive, one-size-fits-all answer for everyone. So, we thought we would create a comprehensive guide to help you with the process. Which is why attribution matters.īut how do you go about selecting a marketing attribution model that works for you? In an environment where customers are increasingly taking more complex and extended journeys – and using more devices on those journeys – the need to understand the specific impact of the wide range of media at your disposal is paramount.
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